The momentum picked up on Tuesday afternoon as we moved into lunch and the afternoon break. Lunch featured a number of soups and salads, but the sun on the patio was pretty hot to get into something like seafood bisque. My favorite lunch option was the “Bistro Grilled Steakhouse Sandwich” – not too cutting-edge, but still satisfying. (OK, yes, and the “Guinness White & Dark Chocolate Cake”… frosted with marscapone whipped cream.) The afternoon break items shared a “blue” theme – all the dishes were blue in color or… purple. (“Purple Up” soda, “Purple Grape Sorbet”, etc.) I’m a sucker for chips and salsa, so I was pleased to see “Blue Corn Chips with Fresh Pico de Gallo” as an option.

Dinner offerings drew inspiration from various trends in dining and ingredients, including:

• The growing connection between the kitchen and bar, expressed through dishes such as “Angry Prawns with Kaffir Lime” (served atop a tall shot glass containing a Kaffir Lime Cabo Wabo tequila shot),
• “Slow food” (an ongoing trends, although not one that I found most interesting during my time at the event) via dishes such as “24 Hour Braised Pork” and a pork tenderloin served in a slowly steeped sauce, and
• The combination of sweet and savory flavors; the “Caramel Corn Cake” was an especially tasty example.

The following is drawn from a number of different presentations and conversations on both Tuesday and Wednesday during the event. Maria Caranfa deserves a very healthy nod for the bulk of the observations below.

To me, the emerging trends in beverages (cocktails, mostly) seem significantly different than some of the other ongoing developments in fine dining. The new consumer target – Gen Y – is not likely to have much impact here, as many are obviously underage and few are likely in the market for $11+ cocktails. The “renovation” trend may not come into play here either – simply introducing a few new fancy cocktails may not be enough for operators to keep pace, although it would undoubtedly buy time. Finally, the “multi-sensory experiences” trend (the only issue from my “Top 5″ not yet mentioned) does crop up in cocktails – imagine the aroma of a twisted orange rind – but not to the degree as in appetizers, entrees, and desserts. (And I don’t know about you, but I don’t tend to play around with my drinks.)

For one thought on the economy’s effect on trends in beverages scroll down to the end of this post, but here are the two major areas of discussion we heard:

Artisan cocktails – Infused bitters, obscure spirits, and gourmet ingredients from tomato water to chili lime salt are going to revolutionize not only the bar but also the back of the house. Flavor trends in cocktails and NA beverages will include: ginger, spicy chiles (especially Southeast Asian, such as Thai), cucumber, house-made simple syrups, garnishes and rims, ginger beer, house-infused spirits, fresh ingredients, floral notes, and the continued growth of wine and champagne in cocktails. Increased attention will be paid to the fine details, from the garnishes to the glassware to the ice (blocks, tubes, hand-cracked chunks, etc), and recipes will evoke more elegant times such as the pre-WWII era.

Interaction between the food and bar menus – Restaurants will start to move beyond drink pairings to incorporating food ingredients into the bar and vice versa. Beverage programs will start to take inspiration from (and influence in turn) trends in food dishes. With new relationships evolving between the bar and the kitchen, cocktails will evolve as well. Operators who do not have distinctive drinks may be left behind.

(For my fellow Chicagoans, I can’t think of a better example of the above than The Violet Hour. If you see me there, you can buy me a Sazerac.)

Finally, one personal note regarding the trends framework I have been using. In a struggling economy, it almost sounds perverse to talk about luxury cocktails and ridiculous to expect consumers will pay for premium cocktails like a “Fairview Manhattan”. And yet… the affluent are still seeking out distinctive, even exclusive, experiences while the mainstream consumers still feel the urge to splurge and get a taste of the good life. Time will tell if the artisan/gourmet approach to beverages will take hold or will pass as a brief fad.

ML

The good people who maintain the Flavor Experience website posted all of the presentations from last week.  While attendees can access as many files as we like, we can only distribute them internally.  Sadly, we can’t share other presentations from the event with partners or prospects. (Mintel folks can contact me for more info.)

As I was looking through some of the presentations, I noticed the following Frank Zappa quote from a session on beverage trends (that I wasn’t able to attend):

You can’t be a real country unless you have a beer and an airline. It helps if you have some kind of a football team, or some nuclear weapons, but at the very least you need a beer.

We will be posting a few more thoughts here this week, so stay tuned.

ML

Of the sessions I attended during the event, I found the presentation on “Generation Y” by Lisa Strick and Kara Nielsen of the Center for Culinary Development among the most interesting. Also called “Millennials”, the young people that make up the next generation could be an enormous opportunity for marketers. As Mintel has published in reports such as “Spending Power of the Teen Consumer,” the younger generation spends more today on dining out at restaurants and coffee shops. In their presentation, CCD supported their points with findings from both quantitative – of 1000 participants between the ages of 16-28 – and qualitative studies of representative US samples.

Lisa and Kara tried to help the audience understand some of intangibles involved in Gen Y – how they think, what they find appealing, and how restaurant operators can use these insights to attract this challenging demographic. Young people present a puzzle: they value uniqueness yet want to be part of the “in” crowd; they value personalization yet want ubiquitous brands like Apple and Nike; and they are frequently isolated yet constantly communicate (via text messaging, Twitter, IM’ing, Facebook, etc).

While brands like Nike have seemingly cracked the code (via NIKEiD), I’m not sure the Applebee’s of the world can say the same. Thus while restaurant chains may have the furthest to go, they may have much to gain. I found the following insights from CCD’s study especially relevant:

• Food is the glue that brings teens and twenty-somethings together,
• Gen Ys seek special flavors and dishes,
• Recommendations from peers exert great influence over their decisions,
• Menus must offer appetizers and entrees that Gen Ys can share in a group,
• Interacting with food and a sense of fun is important (but shouldn’t feel childish), and
• Healthy options have to be easy.

Because Gen Ys are a relatively untapped market, operators may be able to find a new source of revenue in tough times and simultaneously build brand loyalty in the next generation. In an interesting way, diversifying the target market to include Gen Ys marks an intersection of the challenging economy and the struggle to redefine a brand. I can’t imagine it’s as simple as introducing a few new dishes or putting out a series of edgy commercials. Further, Gen Y consumers are more media-savvy, discerning, and connected than any preceding generation.

From my perspective, if understanding the intangibles is the challenge to sell to Gen Y, maybe the solution lies in the intangibles operators have to offer. Restaurants offering free Wi-Fi, unique flavors (possibly available in low-risk portion sizes), settings that encourage socializing, and other options like “Build Your Own” dishes may find success in this new market.

ML

PS – Don’t forget the AC outlets. The more the better.

Breakfast

Tuesday morning’s menu offered a wealth of options to attendees from “Beautiful Breakfast Quiches” (two to choose from, including an Applewood Smoked Bacon, caramelized Sweet Onion, and Asiago cheese Quiche and a Vegetarian Quiche with Fire-Roasted Vegetables, Italian Marinated Tomatoes, Spinach, Potato, and Asiago cheese) to a “Strawberry Sunrise Smoothie”.

At this point, I should pause to apologize. I am not much of a breakfast person. Brunch, yes. The (now) rare late-night plate of eggs & bacon? Absolutely. However, to start a long, high-energy day I typically gravitate more toward the coffee & a bagel end of the spectrum.

Thus, despite the “Breakfast Bagels with Wild Alaska Salmon”, the “Idaho Mashed Potato & Egg Breakfast Pancake”, and so on, I kicked off my day with a coffee and a “Sunrise” smoothie. Both of which hit the spot.

Nosh

Twice a day on Tuesday and Wednesday, we split up the morning and afternoon sessions with “Nosh & Network” breaks. Each break was defined by a color – beginning with green. For example, Tuesday’s dishes included ingredients such as kiwi, avocado, (green) grapes, etc.

The highlight of the break was the “Mini Avocado Margarita Cream Parfait” described as “a ‘just enough’ parfait in layers of graham cracker crumbs and delicious fresh Avocado cream filling, garnished with Raspberry, whipped cream, and fresh Mint sprig.” I was very impressed with both the flavor profile of the dish as well as its versatility. I could easily imagine the parfait as a brunch item, a sweet end to a nice lunch, a mid-afternoon snack, a refreshing bite between courses during dinner, or even an upscale dessert option. (And yes, it really did taste good!)

While the subject had not yet been explored in detail by mid-morning on Tuesday, I think the parfait nicely exemplifies a few developments on menus:

• More options to order small bites of sweet dishes, such as a mini-cupcake or a dessert “shot”.
• Moving desserts from something seen almost exclusively as an after-dinner dish to a sweet-treat that could be enjoyed any time during the day.
• The use of unusual flavor profiles in desserts (the “Top 10” list also mentions corn, salt, beets, and chiles).

While the oft-mentioned mainstream consumer may not be ready for Avocado parfaits (and I’m not sure I would order a full-size dessert with such an unusual flavor either), offering diners an opportunity to try something new at a low-risk price and portion size could be a successful idea. For more information from Mintel on consumer attitudes toward dining out, try going here.

ML

“Kathy & Cathy” (Hayden and Holley, respectively) appropriately titled their Tuesday morning presentation “Quick Flavor Development Trends Update”. While they covered a good deal of ground in just thirty minutes, a few points on the recession economic downturn jumped out at me. In particular, I believe they succinctly pointed to a few strategies operators and others can employ to keep their business healthy during tough times, including:

• The use of comfort foods connected, either via flavor or preparation (possibly even in the name of the dish), with a sense of nostalgia and memories of better times.
• “Heightening the humble” nature of food by stressing simple ingredients.
• Encouraging diners to splurge, and defining your brand by positioning your restaurant as a destination, where customers will go to spoil themselves (thus potentially offsetting reduced visits with bigger tickets).
• Employing the “bite & sip” theory by offering a small-plates portion of the menu (which research shows increases the average order value as customers order several small plates rather than sharing a single dish).

I found all of the ideas above interesting, in particular the point about comfort and humility. The former seems to be a popular topic this week, while the latter implies some anxiety about consumer backlash. Which seems reasonable, as many Americans may worry first about how much gas it will take to drive to dinner much less how much to spend on an entree.

Following the “Trends Update”, I took in the first half or so of “Purposeful Menu Evolution: A Winning Formula to Stem the Tactical Reactions in a Strategic Marketplace”. The presenter from The Cutting Edge drove home a critical point: branding is critical to your business during lean times.

With an increasingly difficult environment and discerning consumer exerting pressures on everyone in the food business, The Cutting Edge stressed that maintaining a consistent and coherent brand message may be the determining factor between success and failure. Thus, a tactical reaction that does not resonate with your customer will only weaken your brand’s identity.

The presentation almost seemed to set up a counter-point to all of the discussion on trends and change and renovation: that the decision-making process is most important. And if the strategy guiding those decisions is poorly understood, muddled, or overly aspirational, the result will be off the mark. Sadly, I don’t think the audience was up to it. While I hate to admit it, I have a feeling some didn’t make it past the title.

ML

You might notice that I tagged the previous post with “renovation”. After speaking with a few other attendees, and cross-referencing the “Top Ten Trends” road map assembled by our friends at Flavor & the Menu, I am trying to distill everything I have heard here down to a framework of 5 or so trends. For the most part, this is to help me think about and interpret the proverbial fire-hose of information this week.

One of my personal Top 5 Trends, then, is “renovation” – in other words, an attempt by a food manufacturer or operator to update or refresh a dish, brand, or product to respond to ongoing pressures in the marketplace and from consumers while not investing in a full innovation process or an entirely new product and (again) staying true to the core brand message.

While this may sound less exciting than innovation, I think it could be important. Innovation, as we know, is expensive and time-consuming. Renovation, however, may be an acceptable alternative to literally buy time, stay relevant, and in some sense “fresh”, while trying to determine a more long-term direction.

Renovation, then, may be an appropriate response to some (yet not all) of the pressures identified by Lori Daniel in her opening presentation.

Keep an eye out for the remainder of the Top 5 throughout the rest of the week.

ML

Lori Daniel, MC for The Flavor Experience, presented an intriguing recap of “outlaw” foods, ingredients, and issues yesterday morning. Daniel’s delivered her speech in a humorous way – Kevin Bacon came up – but still managed to hit on a number of challenging points. In the course of her fast-forward review, she discussed how the pace of change and the breadth of consumer understanding has influenced the food industry. For example, butter became one of the first outlaws, to be replaced by margarine, only to find out that margarine too was unhealthy (more so even than butter), but then trans-fats were removed from margarine in response to consumers’ concerns, to now when (maybe) olive oil is the new butter.

Yet, there is a new worry – even the healthiest (or maybe we should say, least unhealthy) oils and fats cooked at high temperatures may produce toxins.

Among some of Daniel’s other points, she cited:

• The no/low carbohydrate craze,
• Increased sensitivity to special health issues such as “gluten free“,
• Heightened awareness of problematic ingredients such as HFCS and trans-fats,
• Social and ethical issues such as Fair Trade, GMO, and organic farming, and
• Anxiety regarding mercury levels in fish and E. coli in fruits & vegetables.

All of which add up to an unpredictable and tough environment in which to run a restaurant. Daniel seemed to place the burden firmly on the shoulders of operators and food service companies to anticipate and respond to changes in the market. From my perspective, it looks like a near-impossible to task to simultaneously maintain strong revenues and profits, satisfy your customer base, attract new customers while remaining true to your brand identity, and yet still be mindful of (and responsive to) emerging concerns and issues in the marketplace.

ML

Stay tuned – more updates coming this afternoon and tonight!

Tonight’s happy hour event featured a number of tasty hor dourves and interesting cocktails in a great setting (on the patio overlooking the bay during sunset). Of the finger food laid out across the upper and lower levels of the patio, I tried:

• “Mini California Avocado Shrimp Cocktail”, designed by the Hass Avocado Board (a sponsor), and the name pretty much says it all. Served in a mini martini glass and very tasty.
• “Steamed Carlsbad Mussels”, two varieties were served but I only tried the Garlic Butter & Melted Fennel option (compliments of Land O’ Lakes) – also very tasty and locally sourced from Carlsbad, CA.
• The “Salty Strawberry Kisses” looked delicious but I got to talking and (literally) forgot about them. Another local product, dipped in chipotle dark chocolate then “kissed” with a dash of kosher salt (thanks to Cargill and PMA).

The latter two items are good examples of the “locavore” trend we’ve written about in a recent Mintel Report.

For cocktails, I ordered a “Chili Mango Rita” (spicy… served with a slice of jalapeño) and sampled a Tanqueray Rangpur “Cucumber Martini”. The latter was cleverly garnished with a slice of cucumber pinched in a wooden (looked like bamboo) clip.

The reception seemed well attended and everyone was very friendly. I had some interesting conversations on a variety of topics (Bennigan’s came up several times) especially how the slumping economy has impacted menus and marketing tactics. Interestingly, it seems smaller portions are being seen as an attractive choice in that they can be positioned as both potentially healthier and less costly options – particularly in areas like desserts.

ML